I'll always remember where I was when silver was crushed for $6 on the Sunday night back in April. I'm sure that I'll never forget the past two days, either. These are amazing times to be alive. Historic.
The main thing that surprises me about all of this is the fact that it is so surprising. I would never have expected a two-day, 25% drop in silver when the open interest on Wednesday was only 111,500 contracts. Similarly, how can gold fall over $200 when the open interest before the fall was under 500,000. The question we need to answer is: Who/what is selling? We'll have to wait to see the Open Interest numbers this afternoon to see where we stood after yesterday and we'll have to wait until Monday for today's numbers. To hear the pundits talk, the PM "bubble" has finally burst as "investors flee for the exits". If that's truly the case, then the OI numbers we get on Monday should show total silver OI of around 80,000 contracts. Gold should drop to something under 450,000. If the OI numbers come in flat to only slightly down, then we've not simply seen a bubble pop. We will have witnessed, over the past 48 hours, a massive manipulative short-selling spree the likes of which we've never seen before. I'll leave it at that for now because it would be useless to speculate further before we see the actual numbers on Monday.
At any rate, the pre-close drop we discussed on the earlier thread did, in fact, materialize earlier as gold briefly touched 1632 about 90 minutes ago. With that behind us, the worst may be over. May be over. The gap on the daily chart from 8/7 has finally been filled and all of this certainly appears overdone. However, do not be surprised by some follow-through selling Sunday night and into Monday. There will be a sharp rebound next week, of that you can be certain, but I would thoroughly discourage you from trying to catch it. In the immortal words of the 70s icons, Paper Lace: Billy, don't be a hero!
The beating that silver has taken is simply preposterous. I'm not even going to try to explain it other than to state again: When the regulators don't care and the market is dominated by JPMs tenuous short position, periods like these are going to continue to happen. Does that mean your physical silver is a stupid investment? Hell no! But if you're going to base your happiness, sanity and willingness to protect yourself financially upon the whims of an unfairly manipulated, 100:1 leveraged paper silver futures market, maybe you should just give up and head back over to Y! Finance and Mad Money. If you truly believe as I do that we are in the death throes of the Keynesian Experiment, you'll use this opportunity to stack even more physical and laugh at the absurd irrationality of the last two days.
That's all for today. Please be sure to check the site tomorrow morning as I will be publishing another TF Metals Report podcast for your enjoyment. It's about an hour long and well worth the listen. Have a great Friday evening and be sure to keep it all in perspective. TF
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